Cross-Border & Customs

While the U.S. market remains shaky, nearshoring of manufacturing to Mexico will continue to boost cross-border freight flows in North America. We expect the cross-border market to be stronger during the second quarter compared to domestic trucking in the US. Mexico has been experiencing a nearshoring boom and expansion of foreign companies in the market, led by Texas-based automaker Tesla’s plan to build a $5B electric vehicle factory near the Mexican city of Monterrey.

With rates being pushed this low, it comes as no surprise that the industry at large saw many bankruptcies. The dry van sector is by far the largest in the trucking market. Nearshoring continues to be the headline in Mexico. Growth in manufacturing continues to increase across several Mexican states, and we are starting to see more foreign companies making significant investments in Mexico. Historically, northbound shipments exceed southbound shipments by a ratio of 4:1. We expect this trend to continue increasing as productions levels increase.

As we move into Q2 of 2023, the market is still experiencing an excess in demand. Signs of shifting capacity in the truckload market have been evident for about a year. Nearshoring continues to be the headline in Mexico.  Industrial parks are being utilized at maximum capacity and more construction projects are on the horizon. This is a direct result of companies looking for a more diversified and resilient global supply chain. The growth in manufacturing impacts cross-border trucking in Mexico. Both transload and direct trailers volumes are increasing.

We continue to see more companies moving production from China to Mexico. This increase in demand is reflected in the DAT load-to-truck ratio for Laredo Northbound which currently sits at 3:1. Many carriers in Mexico are allocating capacity to shippers with the best driver experience to retain drivers and get the highest yield possible at the current market pricing. Central and southern Mexico, namely the Zacatecas state and the states on the Pacific coast, continue to be areas with low availability of capacity.

As we begin the new year, many in the industry are asking the same question: Can we expect any surprises in 2023? Many experts are optimistic that this year will bring less volatility and more predictability to the market in general. In the following report, we will evaluate the economic factors that affected supply and demand for 2022 and how they have changed for 2023.

The following report was written by the Sunset Transportation cross-border team, stationed at the World Trade border in Laredo / Nuevo Laredo and Querétaro, MX. Insights are drawn from multiple sources, including our in-house transportation experts and industry data.